Wednesday, October 10, 2018

How to invest / trade in stock market in OCT 2018

In last few weeks, as majority of my prediction related to NIFTY  and stocks went correct I decided to start this blog. Hope it will be useful to you all.

Stock market / Sensex /  Nifty went up today ( Oct 10, 2018) as predicted.
Nifty closed at 10460 which is up 159 points
Sensex closed at 34760 which is up by 461 points

My predictions for coming days are

Technically NIFTY is in down trend but today it has come out of oversold zone. Since last one week, I was knowing that NIFTY will start moving upward but I was waiting for it to come out of oversold zone.

The market /index/ Nifty can be bullish from tomorrow for next few months. Nifty can move up approx 50 to 100 points for next one week or so. This does not mean all the days market will move up only, some of the days market can move down also. But overall up and bullish. This also means that Nifty can touch 11,000 within one week (7 working days)

NIFTY prediction for tomorrow Oct 11, 2018

Nifty will move up tomorrow.
Market may open gap up. There is resistance at 10,477.
Nifty will move upto 10,530 then some resistance and then can move further upto 10,600
It may jump up with a gap. Closing can be near 10,560- 10,580. Downward upto 50 points in between. All levels are approximate and sometimes they are dynamic.

The above predictions are based on technicals so if there is any positive or negative news, market will change accordingly.

Today I asked to buy good stocks for long terms because I knew market will move up and we may not get chance to buy these stocks at lower price.

Today I asked not to buy IT and pharma stocks for long term - reason - they went up because of rupee got devalued against US dollar and so their profit margin increased as they are into overseas / export business.

Now in coming days rupee will be stronger against US dollar so their profit margin will get affected. The companies who have local business, their stock price can move up. This does not mean that price of these stocks will not move up. Only thing their growth performance may not match other sectors and we need stocks which can have higher growth prospects. These stocks can move up when their positive quarterly results get declared or there is some positive news.
TCS Q2 earnings will be announced on Thursday and stock can move up.


Crude oil price will also start falling in coming days. This will have positive effect on economy and stock market.

Which stocks to buy for long term?

In last month many good stocks have come down by 60% to 30%. So this is a good buying opportunity for long term which I was informing from time to time.

In general, stocks which are at their 52 week low or near that and are in oversold zone as per technical charts and which are fundamentally strong. Majority stocks in your portfolio should be from Nifty 50 stocks or Group A stocks with diversified sectors. 

Sectors which will perform better in coming year will be PRIVATE BANKS, SELECTED PSU BANKS, FMCG, SERVICE, TEXTILE, EDUCATION, HOSPITALITY, FITNESS, SUGAR and more. This DOES NOT MEAN all stocks of these sectors will perform good, some of the stocks may go down so we need to do proper stock wise analysis. This does not mean that other sectors will not perform good.

Also while buying you can buy small quantities on dips, but sometimes it is good to buy in one shot.

Do not invest 100% of your fund, keep some spare fund with you.

As I have not done stock specific analysis, so right now I am not posting the exact stock here
But I have mentioned what parameters to look for so you can choose the stock accordingly.

When to sell these stocks?


Keep checking your portfolio from time to time. Buy / Sell if required.
You can sell these stocks in March 2019 or earlier as per individual need. Will explain this in upcoming post. With proper portfolio one can gain 30% to 60% in coming 6 months.

The above are my views and I can be wrong also.

Wish you happy trading and investment.

Please leave your comments and feedback in the comment section below this post.

Disclaimer - This article is for study and knowledge purpose only, please take advice of your financial adviser before investing or trading.
















     

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